With coronavirus cases continuing to increase, four locations in Kent are likely to be COVID-19 ‘hot spots’ over the next few weeks.
An interactive map from experts at Imperial College London predicts that parts of Kent have at least a 75% chance of seeing more than 100 cases per week by July 11 – just eight days before the new ‘day of the week’. freedom âof England.
The map classifies areas as “hot spots” if they have a 75-100% chance of recording more than 50, 100, 200, 300, or 500 infections per week.
Read more: Map shows how coronavirus cases have increased since pubs and restaurants inside reopened
Currently only Maidstone and Canterbury are classified as “hot spots”, with Maidstone having a 97% chance of documenting more than 100 cases over seven days, while in Canterbury it is 88%.
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However, the probability of Maidstone registering more than 100 infections by July 11 is expected to rise to 99% and in Canterbury that figure is expected to rise to 89%.
Tunbridge Wells could also become a “hot spot”, with experts predicting a 75% chance the region will experience more than 100 cases by July 11.
At the moment, the area has only a 53% chance that the area will document more than 100 infections.
Tonbridge and Malling are also expected to become a coronavirus ‘hotspot’ by July 11, with scientists predicting an 88% chance the region will experience more than 100 cases per week.
Currently, it has a 72% chance of becoming a hotspot.
Imperial College London says: âOn the map we show the probability that an area will be a hotspot in the next one, two and three weeks.
“The projections for the hot spots assume that there has been no change in interventions and human behavior for a week before the last observed data.”
However, the rest of Kent is not expected to become a “hotspot”, Swale and Folkestone and Hythe are expected to be the areas with the lowest infection rates.
The map created by KentLive below uses data from Imperial College London.
It shows the difference in infection rates, with today’s data (June 29) on the left and the forecast for July 11 on the right.
In Swale, the region currently has a 3% chance of documenting more than 100 cases per week.
Meanwhile, in Folkestone and Hythe, it’s four percent.
As of July 11, the map shows Swale could only have a 14% chance of seeing more than 100 cases in seven days.
In Folkestone and Hythe, that figure should only be 16%.